Dashboard 2 · Market Research Intelligence

Pharma Market Research Intelligence

IQVIA / EvaluatePharma-style commercial strategy across 30,000 asset-market records — therapy-area sizing, competitor landscape, TAM/SAM/SOM, patent cliff, launch-risk matrix and a final Go/No-Go.

Market Intelligence Director workbench · TAM/SAM/SOM · Porter · Patent Cliff · Launch Scorecard · Generated with Claude Code

Executive Summary

IQVIA / EvaluatePharma-style commercial assessment — market attractiveness, competition, access and launch decision

Tracked Addressable Market

$227B

30,000 asset-market records

Captured Revenue Pool

$45.4B

market size × share

Blended Market CAGR

13.0%

2026–2030 forecast

Commercial Leader

Novartis

$7.8B captured

Approved Assets

33%

10,034 of 30,000

High Launch-Risk

33%

of tracked assets

Market Sentiment

-0.00

−1 to +1 scale

Go / No-Go Score

51/100

CONDITIONAL GO

Across 30,000 tracked asset-market records (6 global players · 5 therapy areas · 6 geographies), the universe represents $227B in addressable value and a $45.4B captured revenue pool growing at 13.0% CAGR. The market is moderately fragmented (HHI 1,667) with Novartis leading on captured revenue.

Most attractive therapy area

Oncology — opportunity score 68/100 on $45.2B addressable at 13.1% CAGR. Priority landing zone.

Patent-cliff exposure

Peak erosion year 2028: 2411 assets and $3.6B captured revenue lose exclusivity. LOE defense required.

Access headwind

Government payers dominate 35% of the most-regulated market; 33% of assets carry HIGH launch risk. Access strategy is the gating workstream.

Recommendation: CONDITIONAL GO (score 51/100). The category is large, growing and profitable enough to justify entry; the decision is where, not whether — concentrate on Oncology and the top-two captured-revenue geographies while pre-funding an LOE / access defense for the 2028 cliff.

Therapy Area Assessment

Market size, growth and opportunity scoring across five therapy areas

Addressable market by therapy area

Total tracked addressable value ($B)

Growth vs. opportunity

Composite opportunity score (size 30% · CAGR 30% · captured 25% · sentiment 15%)

Therapy area scorecard

Therapy Area	Addressable ($B)	Captured ($B)	CAGR	Avg Share	Sentiment	Opp. score
Oncology	45.2	9.13	13.1%	20.0%	+0.00	68
CV	45.9	9.16	13.0%	20.0%	-0.01	55
Diabetes	45.1	9.06	13.0%	20.1%	-0.01	36
Rare Disease	45.4	9.07	13.0%	20.1%	-0.01	32
Immunology	45.0	9.03	13.0%	20.1%	+0.01	30

Competitor Landscape

Six global players benchmarked on captured revenue, pipeline depth and approval productivity

Captured revenue by company

Portfolio share of captured pool

Novartis 17%

Sanofi 17%

Pfizer 17%

Merck 16%

Roche 16%

AstraZeneca 16%

Competitor benchmark table

Company	Captured ($B)	Assets	Launched	Approved %	Avg Share	Sentiment	Opp.
Novartis	7.77	5026	821	33%	20.4%	+0.00	59
Sanofi	7.66	5067	875	33%	19.9%	-0.01	62
Pfizer	7.63	4964	792	33%	20.4%	-0.00	32
Merck	7.49	4981	856	34%	19.8%	-0.02	32
Roche	7.48	4960	815	33%	20.1%	+0.02	42
AstraZeneca	7.42	5002	817	34%	19.8%	-0.00	48

Market Sizing — TAM / SAM / SOM

Top-down funnel from total addressable to obtainable market

TAM → SAM → SOM funnel

$B. TAM = all tracked markets; SAM = regulatory-cleared subset; SOM = captured revenue on approved assets

Sizing assumptions

TAM $227B — sum of addressable market value across all 30,000 tracked asset-markets.
SAM $152B — restricted to Approved + Pending regulatory status (realistically reachable).
SOM $15.1B — captured revenue (market size × share) on Approved assets only — the obtainable pool today.
SOM / TAM penetration = 6.7%, leaving substantial headroom for share capture.

CAGR Forecast

Category growth by therapy area and the blended revenue trajectory

CAGR by therapy area

Dashed line = blended average 13.0%

Captured revenue forecast 2026–2030

$B, three scenarios on blended CAGR

Launch Readiness

Pipeline maturity and regulatory posture across the tracked universe

Pipeline by development stage

Asset count per stage — Discovery → Launched

Regulatory status mix

Approved 33%

Pending 33%

Rejected 33%

SWOT Analysis

Data-anchored strategic position of an entrant into this category

Strengths

Large $227B addressable base across 5 therapy areas
Healthy 13.0% category growth
Positive aggregate sentiment (-0.00)

Weaknesses

Only 6.7% of TAM currently obtainable
33% of assets carry HIGH launch risk
Fragmented share — no dominant white-space monopoly

Opportunities

Lead white space: Immunology in UK (only $1.41B captured)
Highest-growth TA: Oncology (13.1% CAGR)
Geographic expansion in under-penetrated markets

Threats

Patent cliff peaks 2028 ($3.6B at risk)
Government payer dominance compresses pricing
Rivalry HHI 1,667 — established incumbents

Porter's Five Forces

Industry attractiveness — each force scored 1 (favorable) to 5 (hostile) from the data

Five-forces radar

Force-by-force read

Force	Score	Level
Competitive Rivalry	3.5/5	MODERATE
Threat of New Entrants	3.7/5	MODERATE
Buyer (Payer) Power	3.7/5	MODERATE
Threat of Substitutes	5.0/5	HIGH
Supplier Power	2.5/5	LOW

Average force intensity 3.7/5 — a moderately hostile industry. Rivalry and buyer (payer) power are the binding constraints; differentiation and access strategy matter more than price.

Pricing Landscape

Tier distribution and the price–share relationship

Assets by pricing tier

Value 33%

Mid 33%

Premium 33%

Avg market share by pricing tier

Tests whether premium pricing costs share

Interpretation: share is broadly flat across tiers, indicating price is not the primary share driver in this category — differentiation and access outweigh list price.

Payer Analysis

Payer archetype mix overall and by geography — the access lens

Payer mix (all markets)

Private 34%

Government 33%

Mixed 33%

Payer mix by country

% of assets by dominant payer type per market

KOL Mapping

Key-opinion-leader coverage and sentiment by region

Assets & captured revenue by KOL region

Captured revenue ($B) under each KOL region's influence

Sentiment by KOL region

Mean sentiment (−1 to +1) — advocacy strength by region

Patent Cliff Analysis

Exclusivity expiry timeline and captured revenue at risk

Patent expiry timeline 2026–2038 — captured revenue at risk

Bars = $B of captured revenue losing exclusivity each year. Peak erosion in 2028.

Assets losing exclusivity per year

LOE defense priorities

2028 is the wall — $3.6B captured revenue and 2411 assets expire; begin lifecycle-management filings 5+ years ahead.
Sequence formulation / new-indication filings to bridge each expiry cohort.
Model authorized-generic vs partner economics per cliff year.

Regulatory Intelligence

Approval posture across therapy areas

Regulatory status by therapy area

Asset counts by regulatory status within each therapy area

Commercial Opportunity Score

Composite ranking of where to compete

Opportunity by therapy area

Opportunity by company (competitive strength)

Launch Risk Matrix

Opportunity vs. competitive strength, sized by captured revenue, colored by launch risk

Company positioning — bubble = captured revenue, color = launch risk

● High risk● Medium● Low

Geographic Expansion Opportunities

Market attractiveness by country

Captured revenue by country

Growth by country

Geographic scorecard

Country	Addressable ($B)	Captured ($B)	CAGR	Avg Share	Assets
US	39.1	7.97	13.2%	20.3%	5104
Japan	37.8	7.57	13.0%	20.0%	5065
UK	37.7	7.55	12.9%	20.1%	5009
France	37.6	7.50	13.1%	19.9%	4954
India	37.8	7.50	12.9%	19.9%	5002
Germany	36.7	7.36	12.9%	20.1%	4866

White Space Identification

Captured-revenue intensity by therapy area × geography — low cells are entry white space

Captured revenue ($B) — therapy area × country

Darker = more contested. The lightest cells are the least-contested entry points.

Lead white space: Immunology in UK shows the lowest captured revenue ($1.41B) — least contested and the recommended beachhead for a differentiated entrant.

Revenue Forecast

Five-year captured-revenue projection with scenario band

Scenario forecast ($B captured revenue)

Scenario table

Scenario	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Upside (+5pp)	$45.4B	$53.6B	$63.3B	$74.7B	$88.2B
Base	$45.4B	$51.4B	$58.0B	$65.6B	$74.1B
Downside (−5pp)	$45.4B	$49.1B	$53.0B	$57.3B	$61.9B

All scenarios apply gross growth to today's captured pool; a real launch model would layer S-curve uptake, gross-to-net (15–35%) and COGS. Shown as directional envelope, not a P&L.

Dashboard Recommendations

Live commercial-intelligence surfaces to stand up

① Market tracker

TA × geography share heatmap, refreshed on IQVIA/Rx feeds
CAGR trend vs plan
White-space monitor

② Competitor war-room

Captured-revenue leaderboard
Pipeline-stage movement alerts
Launch-risk bubble refreshed quarterly

③ Patent & access radar

LOE countdown by asset
Payer-mix & PA-rate by market
Regulatory-status change log

Final Go / No-Go Decision

Consolidated commercial recommendation

Decision: CONDITIONAL GO

The category clears the entry bar: $227B addressable, 13.0% growth, 33% of assets regulatory-cleared and positive sentiment (-0.00).

Where: lead with Oncology (opp 68) and beachhead the Immunology/UK white space.
How: differentiate on clinical + access, not price (share is tier-agnostic, §09).
Guardrail: pre-fund LOE defense for the 2028 cliff and a government-payer access plan.

All metrics computed from pharma_market_research_intel_demo_30000.xlsx (30,000 records). Captured revenue = market size × market share; TAM/SAM/SOM assumptions stated in §04. Directional demonstration analytic, not investment advice.